Ag Thoughts

The soy came under pressure today. The weather has improved in South America allowing for the producer to catch up on planting. There appears at present to be no real outstanding weather threats in the near to medium term. In addition, talk of the US China agreement once again hitting some snags. And finally the talk of next years acreage assessment could, if true, put the soy carry at 650-700 mil bu. There is obviously alot of time between now and planting. The reality is, at present, the carry is also a bit more ample than the market thought and this too is a bit negative. The one true friendly aspect to the soy, in my opinion, is the vegoil sector. This is true as industrial and regular use continue to increase globally. In a bizarre way though oilshare always seems to come back and retest lower levels. Last week was a perfect example of this The oilshare stands at 33.5%. It is my thought that oil share could make a move to 35.7-36%. As always these thoughts are offered as my insights. To discuss any specifics please feel free to call. Always quantify your risk in the market.


John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.