Wheat - Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 4.25 cents higher ($5.10.50), March 3.75 cents higher ($5.29) & July 1 cent higher ($5.46.50)

Dec KC Wheat closed 3.25 cents higher ($5.16), March 3.75 cents higher ($5.37.75) & July 4 cents higher ($5.52.75)

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional original wheat overnight Egypt buys 180.0 K T. for Nov 1st Nov 10th shipment (120.0 K T. Russian & 60.0 K T. Ukraine) and 295.0 K T. for Nov 11th 20th shipment (all Russian origin) Prices paid run $3 to $5 a ton higher vs. last weeks tender

Flat price wheat tries to go it alone on Tuesday. Inter-market spreading along with higher prices elsewhere in the World lent support. As I mentioned Egypt paid $3 to $5 higher in its overnight tender vs. what they paid last week. Offsetting some of this continues to be Russias aggressive selling stance. Also limiting the wheat markets attempt to rally is the bearish price action in the corn and soy markets. I have to think that is the wheat market is going to have any chance of sustaining a rally the rest of the Ag sector has to get off of its can.

Advertised basis levels for interior wheat just dont change. Advertised basis values at the Gulf are similar as they stay pretty constant. Intra-market bull spreads were working in Chgo while in KC they were not. The strongest price action in KC was the May contract; the last contract of the marketing year.

My thought is that if the corn and soybean markets stay soft to lower the wheat market will have a hard time trying to sustain a rally. If corn and soybeans can just steady up wheat has a better chance of sustaining a rally. Maybe Im out in left field but I think Dec Chgo wheat has some decent looking support from $5.05 to $5.00. I dont think I would want to see a close much below the $4.97 level.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/19

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.05 ($5.00) - $5.22

Dec KC Wheat: $5.10 ($5.05) - $5.30

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