AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are mostly 4 to 5 1/4 cents higher at midday, finding support from short covering following Monday’s report of lower than expected condition ratings. The Crop Progress report showed NC as the only of the 18 states to lag average for silking, as most major Corn Belt states were more than double digits higher compared to normal pace. The 63% silking for this week is the fastest pace (excluding the 2012 drought) dating back to 1990. Condition ratings in NE were 4 points higher and up 1 point in IA, with ND and TN the only other states to report better conditions wk/wk. Recent losses in corn have caused basis to strengthen, as DTN reported the average cash price at $3.16 1/2 on Monday afternoon 14 1/2 cents lower than a year ago. That brought the national average basis to -25 1/4 cents, 18 3/4 cents stronger than the same day last year!

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.46 3/4, up 5 cents,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.60 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.72, up 4 3/4 cents

May 19 Corn is at $3.79, up 4 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 7 to 8 cents in the green on a decline in crop condition ratings and continued strong export activity for this time of year. Nearby soy meal is down 60 cents/ton, with soy oil 5 points higher. Monday’s USDA Crop Progress indicated most states along the Corn Belt were nearly twice as far along setting pods than their average pace. It also showed condition ratings 4 points higher in NE, with IL up 2, while IN was down 4 and IA 1 point lower. The national average cash price for soybeans was reported at $7.69 1/2 by DTN on Monday afternoon. That was $1.50 lower than last year, showing an average basis of -60 cents, 5 1/4 cents stronger than the same time last a year ago.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.37 1/2, up 8 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.43 1/4, up 8 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.53 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.63 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $328.50, down $0.60

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.69, up $0.05

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing 9 to 12 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. MPLS is up 5 to 7 cents at the moment. The winter wheat harvest is nearly complete in KS, with TX at 95%, CO 80%, and NE 62% harvested. The spring wheat crop was at or ahead of normal pace for heading in all six major states. Condition ratings for the spring crop were lower in MN, MT, and ID, with SD and WA slightly higher. Japan is seeking 57,914 MT of wheat from the US in their weekly MOA tender, which closes on Thursday.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $5.00 1/2, up 12 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.95 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.35, up 6 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mixed. Feeder cattle futures are feeling a little pressure from higher corn prices at midday, mostly 30 to 50 cents lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up 11 cents from the previous day at $148.27 on 7/13. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were up $1.24 to $205.00, while Select boxes were $1.60 higher at $197.27. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 119,000 head on Monday, up 11,000 from the same week last year and even with last week. A Reuters poll of analysts shows estimates for June placements to be 0.6% larger than last year at 1.781 million head on Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Marketings are seen at 2.011 million head, up 1.1% from a year ago.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $106.750, down $0.175,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $108.725, up $0.075,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $112.800, up $0.100,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.025, down $0.350

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.050, down $0.400

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.325, down $0.300

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are down $.87 to $1.60 at the moment. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 57 cents on July 13, to $80.34. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.15 on Tuesday morning at $84.52. The butt and picnic were the only primal cuts reported lower. The national base carcass price was $71.50 in the Tuesday AM report, down $1.26 from the day prior. USDA estimated Monday’s FI hog slaughter at 431,000 head. That was 14,000 head above last year, but down 13,000 head from the week previous.

Aug 18 Hogs are at $68.325, down $0.875,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $52.400, down $1.600

Dec 18 Hogs are at $47.750, down $1.425

Cotton

Cotton futures are trading 23 to 53 points higher in most front months on Tuesday, shaking off overnight weakness. A slight decline in overall condition reported Monday and continued forecasts for dryness in TX are supporting the market. NASS reported last night that TX has 23% of the crop setting bolls, up 6% from the average, with GA lagging by 1% at 36%. Condition ratings were tallied at 267 points in TX, down 1, as OK was down 50 at 258. The Cotlook A index was down 75 points from the previous week to 97.70 cents/lb on July 16. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 76.17 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 1.58 cents from the week prior.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 89.11, up 23 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 88.24, up 47 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 88.07, up 53 points

May 19 Cotton is at 88.080, up 44 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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